🔔NEW VARIANT—French scientists have “rung the bell” after discovering a cluster 12 cases of a variant of “atypical combination” with **46 mutations & 37 deletions** in southern France after index case returned from Cameroon🇨🇲—dubbed #B16402.🧵 #COVID19
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2) The mutations have caused “Fourteen amino acid substitutions, and 9 amino acid deletions—which are located in the spike protein.”
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3) the French scientists continue: "these observations show once again the unpredictability of the emergence of new #SARSCoV2 variants and their introduction from abroad, and they exemplify the difficulty to control such introduction and subsequent spread”
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4) Also it seems the new #B16402 variant can be shortcut identified using careful PCR analysis of signals different from Delta and Omicron… that’s good… shortcut tests faster than whole genome sequencing.
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New variant alert—I’m quietly monitoring several odd variants signals that have emerged this week. For now, I’ll just share this— #B11529 has 32 new mutations in the #SARSCoV2 spike protein alone— “an extremely high number” & “could be a real concern”.
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6) There are scores of new variants discovered all the time, but it does not necessarily mean they will be more dangerous. What makes a variant more well-known and dangerous is its ability to multiply because of the number of mutations it has in relation to the original virus.
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7) This is when it becomes a "variant of concern" - like Omicron, which is more contagious and more past immunity evasive.
It remains to be seen in which category this new variant will fall.
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8) Okay this data point… in region of South 🇫🇷 where #B16402 is brewing… ICUs rates are much much higher than past wave there (but not elsewhere yet in 🇫🇷). so is it just more cases in that part of 🇫🇷? No, the incidence rise is similar...
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Daily ICU admissions are where things start to look worrying. Here the region is already over the previous highest peak and climbing. France as a whole is still around 40% of the peak.
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9) again, if incidence in Alpes Côte d’Azur is same as rest of 🇫🇷, yet its ICU admissions are higher than previous peaks there (which rest of France isn’t yet)… it’s a signal we need to watch what is happening there more carefully. Vaccinations are similar too—so can’t be that.
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At first I thought Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur must have a higher incidence rate than the French average to explain this. Unfortunately the incidence rate in the region is almost exactly average for France.
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Deaths also show a much steeper climb and are higher than the French average. Through the rest of the pandemic these have been pretty close to the rest of France.
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11) Another source says the rise in ICUs and deaths in Southeast France 🇫🇷 are still due to Delta - possible. I’m not that worried about #B16402 yet—i doubt it will win over Omicron (5-6x faster than Delta) or Delta (which is 2x faster than original).
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"La vague Delta est responsable aujourd'hui de la montée des hospitalisations en réanimation", dit Olivier Véran au JDD.
La situation en Paca est éclairante. Delta y est encore largement majoritaire, et les admissions en soins critiques sont à un niveau record. #Covid19
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